Wall Street’s Big Banks Face a Rate Riff After a Strong H1 2025

In the first half of 2025, major U.S. banks posted robust profits fueled by solid trading revenues, strong loan growth, and a surge in fee income from dealmaking. However, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in March and June 2025 lifted the benchmark to 5.25%–5.5%, pushing long‑term yields higher and reshaping the banking outlook for the third quarter.

A Robust First Half Clouds the Outlook

Bank holdings saw a record $270 billion in market‑value gains as low rates boosted asset prices. Yet the rapid repricing of money has already begun to erode some of those gains, prompting a shift in investor sentiment.

Earnings Season Kicks Off: What Analysts Expect

This week the major Wall Street names—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley—will release their Q3 2025 results. Forecasts from Bloomberg and other sources suggest ...