Introduction
The latest NBC News poll shows Democrats holding a 7‑point lead in the generic congressional ballot, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with President Trump and his policies.
Poll Overview
Registered voters prefer a Democratic‑controlled Congress by a 52‑45% margin, including a 21‑point advantage among independents. The survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Oct. 28‑30, carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
| Party | Generic Ballot |
|---|---|
| Democrats | 52% |
| Republicans | 45% |
Trump Approval Ratings
President Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to 60%, the highest mark in NBC News polling across his two terms, while his approval stands at 40%. His net approval has slipped 18 points among white voters without a college degree since the start of his second term.
Economic Concerns
Roughly three‑quarters of voters are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, and inflation remains the top issue. Sixty‑four percent of voters — including a third of Trump supporters — say the president has fallen short of expectations.
Party Favorability
Only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% who view the Republican Party favorably. About half of all voters hold negative views of both parties.
Voter Engagement
Seventy percent of respondents rate their interest in the midterm elections as a 9 or 10 on a 10‑point scale. Democrats hold a 12‑point advantage among the most engaged voters, while Republicans lead by 2 points among those less interested.
Regional Dynamics
Republicans maintain an edge in districts Trump won in 2024, yet the president’s approval is underwater in those states, with 53% disapproval versus 47% approval.
Congressional Leaders
House Speaker Mike Johnson enjoys a 24% positive rating, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune is largely unknown to voters. Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have lower positive ratings, with Schumer viewed negatively by 53%.
Conclusion
The poll indicates that Democrats are positioned to gain seats, but their lead is driven more by anti‑Republican sentiment than by enthusiasm for the party itself. As the election approaches, voter concerns about the economy and trust in government will likely shape the final outcome.
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