No. 2 Ohio State vs. USC: A Road Game That Could Define the Buckeyes

The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes are set to visit USC, a team that fell out of the rankings after losing to Wisconsin. The Trojans are 6-2, but another loss came from Oregon. Ohio State already lost at Texas in Week 2 and now turns to freshman quarterback Luke Fahey with Julian Sayin out.

The Buckeyes have spent much of the season among the national title favorites. Another loss would complicate that conversation. Every week brings an upset possibility, and this one could be next.

The matchup: Ohio State’s road test at USC

No. 2 Ohio State visits USC at Saturday, 7:30 p.m., NBC. The Buckeyes are 6-1, while USC is 6-2. The point spread had Ohio State -7 at USC, with the money line listing Ohio State (-265) and USC (+215). The over/under was set at 51.5.

USC’s offense has shown flashes, but the Trojans still carry the loss to Oregon. Ohio State’s defense remains a central concern, and the Buckeyes’ offensive identity has been tied closely to quarterback play and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. With Sayin out, the pressure on Fahey and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel’s simplified approach becomes the story.

What Ohio State’s offense looks like now

I am throwing out the assumption that Ohio State can keep playing offense the same way without Sayin simply because they have a potential Heisman candidate in WR Jeremiah Smith. Someone still has to get him the ball.

Sayin helped create those passing numbers, while Fahey has 13 attempts and now has to make his first start on the road at USC. There is almost nothing to tell us how he will handle that assignment.

The obvious move is to lean on RB Bo Jackson, but that comes with questions, too. Jackson averages 5.9 yards per carry at home and 3.8 away this season. The road competition has been tougher, so Ohio State has not established that it can walk into a difficult matchup and run whenever it wants. Those games also came with Sayin giving defenses something else to worry about. I expect a simplified offense, and I am less convinced that it means an efficient one.

Fahey’s first start and the simplified plan

The freshman quarterback’s first career start will not come easy. USC’s home environment adds another layer, and the Buckeyes have already played a difficult road game at Texas. The simplified offense could help Fahey, but it could also limit Ohio State’s ceiling if the passing game cannot get into a rhythm quickly.

USC has the better setting

Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava gives me a reason to believe USC can do more than hang around. At home, he is completing almost 70% of his passes, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, and has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. His numbers fall to 62.6% and 7.3 yards per attempt when he is on the road. Getting this game in Los Angeles is key.

I also like how he can attack. Maiava’s best passing comes on intermediate throws, with seven touchdowns and one interception on passes traveling 10-19 yards. USC does not need to spend the night hoping somebody catches a bomb.

Prediction: USC +7 vs. Ohio State

The Trojans can win this outright. Ohio State’s defense is the biggest obstacle, but it also gives me a reason to like under 51.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing successful plays on just 32% of opponent passes, and USC’s running game does not look strong enough to take that responsibility off Maiava. I expect USC to work for its points.

That makes getting a full touchdown appealing. USC can stay within this number without turning the game into a shootout, especially if Ohio State plays a more conservative game and possessions take longer for the Buckeyes.

The concern is USC’s defense giving up easy scores, and Ohio State’s 58-1 record against unranked opponents under Ryan Day shows how rarely these opportunities turn into upsets. Still, I see a competitive fourth quarter. Ohio State has averaged just 6.3 and 4.3 fourth-quarter points on the road over the last two seasons. If this stays close, Maiava gives USC a legitimate chance to finish the upset, even in a lower-scoring game.

What’s at stake for both teams

For Ohio State, the loss to Texas already leaves questions at quarterback, but a loss to USC would test the program’s national title ceiling. For USC, a win over a No. 2 team would instantly reshape its College Football Playoff path and prove the Trojans belong in the national conversation.

The pick here is USC +7 vs. Ohio State. It is not just a pick against the spread; it is a pick that USC can cover while keeping the game close enough for a fourth-quarter push.

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